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Date de publication: 20 oct. 2011
Auteur: Y.B.
Noter cette article :
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IATA, l'association internationale du transport aérien, a publié son AIRLINE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX pour le mois d'octobre 2011 et constate une confirmation de la diminution du traffic aérien ces derniers mois.

Points clés :

  • Airline confidence fell in IATA’s October survey of CFOs and heads of cargo, with expectations for profitability over the next 12 months down significantly. This low level of confidence has in the past been consistent with the industry doing only a little better than breakeven. A sharp deterioration was also reported for the third quarter.
     
  • The economic outlook has deteriorated since the previous survey in July but airlines expect this to have uneven impacts on their markets. The major deterioration has been in cargo markets, where airlines report a sharp decline in the third quarter and in their expectations for the coming year. Confidence in passenger markets is down but not by much.
     
  • Yield expectations have also declined, particularly in cargo markets where 45% of respondents are now expecting a fall. Even in passenger markets, however, airline confidence in yields over the year ahead is at their lowest level since early 2009.
     
  • The current and expected squeeze on profit margins is apparent in the results for unit costs. Airlines report that unit cost increases were a little lower in Q3 than Q2, but not by much, which is close to 2008 highs. This reflects the relatively modest decline in fuel prices from April peak levels. The outlook for the year ahead is for more subdued increases, but nonetheless increases compared with expected declines in yields. Expected breakeven load factors will have increased as a result.
     
  • Although confidence in the outlook for profitability has fallen back to the levels seen in the first half of 2009, airlines are continuing to hire and expect to do so in the year ahead. Only 12% of respondents expect to cut payrolls over the next 12 months.

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