L'IATA, l'Association internationale du transport aérien a publié son "AIRLINE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX" pour le mois de janvier 2012 et observe une diminution continue de la confiance.
Points clés :
Airline industry confidence has continued to decline in IATA’s January survey of CFOs and heads of cargo. A majority of respondents reported deteriorations in profitability in the fourth quarter; the trend is expected to continue in the year ahead.
There was a particularly sharp decline in expectations for traffic growth, both in recent months and for the next 12 months. The persisting weak economic conditions could now finally be starting to take a toll on passenger travel, which has been relatively resilient during 2011. Indicators of business confidence and trade have registered no growth recently, and that is now reflected in the survey responses for cargo traffic.
Input costs remained high in Q4, with 73% of CFOs and cargo heads indicating they experienced upward cost pressure. The outlook, however, shows some relief. In anticipation of weaker economic conditions, there is an expectation unit cost pressures will ease back to levels experienced in 2010.
Yield expectations remain at low levels, with passenger yields expected to do little better than stabilize over the next 12 months. Cargo yields came under significant demand pressure in Q4. Breakeven load factors remain high as a result.
Profit and traffic confidence expectations have now fallen to levels seen at the start of 2009, a period when the industry was generating losses and travel volumes had weakened sharply.