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Mer. 18 janv. 2012 - IATA - Légère reprise du traffic global en novembre et baisse du traffic premium

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Auteur: Y. B.

Date de publication: 18/01/2012

 

L'IATA, l'Association internationale du transport aérien a publié son "PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR" pour le mois de novembre 2011 et observe une légère reprise du traffic global ainsi qu'une baisse du traffic premium.

Points clés :

  • The number of passengers travelling on premium seats increased slightly in November, by 0.6% compared to October. Over the year, there has been cumulative growth in premium travel of 1.7% when comparing November 2011 to the same month in 2010.
     
  • However, the level of premium travel has trended downwards from the high point reached earlier in 2011. Although there was some increase from October levels, the size of the international premium passenger market in November was 2.6% smaller than in May 2011.
     
  • Economy class travel contracted in November, down 1.1% from October, but as the chart below indicates this is not an exceptional month-to-month change. Moreover, economy travel has generally been stronger than premium travel over the past six or more months. Compared to the same month last year, economy travel is up 3.0%. Whereas the trend in premium travel in the second half of 2011 was downwards, the opposite was the case for economy travel. Compared to the start of 2011, economy traffic has grown by 3.8%, while premium traffic contracted 0.1%.
     
  • The share of premium travel in total travel has been losing ground for much of 2011, having partly regained, during 2010, the share lost in the late 2008/early 2009 downturn. The chart below indicates a minor increase in premium travel as a share of total travel for November, but the seat class mix is still considerably worse – from the perspective of airline yields - than at the start of the year.
     
  • On some markets, premium travel is weak because a contraction or slowdown in economic activity has reduced business travel. In other markets, business travel continues, often linked to export business, but business travellers have switched from premium to cheaper economy seats. The latter substitution appears to have been taking place on, for example, the within-Europe segment, where premium travel fell in November although economy travel growth remained relatively robust.
     
  • World trade growth has slowed to a virtual halt in recent months and business confidence in the major industrial economies has fallen sharply, to the point where the survey shows industrial production is expected to grow no further over the next few months. World trade has been a good coincident or current indicator for premium travel. Business confidence has been a good leading indicator. Both suggest there will be little further growth in premium travel in the next few months.

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