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Date de publication: 7 mai 2012
Auteur: Y B
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La banque allemande Deutsche Bank a publié une analyse sur le thème de la croissance par rapport à l'austérité dans la zone euro.

Le document est intitulé "Growth versus austerity in euroland".

Résumé :

In the present public discussion of economic adjustment in the euro area growth and austerity are often seen as competing objectives. In our view, however, this view is based on a rather mechanistic concept of economic growth.

At the root of the recession in the euro area is a lack of confidence in the ability of individual countries to achieve the necessary economic flexibility required for a monetary union of regions with divergent economic developments and in the capability of EU institutions to manage the present crisis. The restoration of confidence is essential to end the recession and return to economic growth. The question therefore is not whether to give priority to fiscal austerity or economic growth but to find the optimal degree of austerity and structural reforms for the maximisation of confidence.

In this regard, we consider the glass half full: Economic policies in Spain and Italy are going in the right direction and there has been considerable progress towards establishing a crisis management mechanism for EMU. However, much still needs to be done. Governments in Spain and Italy have to stay the course and the new government of France has to join the club of reformers. Moreover, the inconsistent two-level crisis management system, i.e. strict EU/IMF fiscal policy and unlimited ECB monetary policy, has to be turned into a consistent and effective regime. In our view, 2012 will be the decisive year for the future of the euro. At present, we still see a good chance for a successful stabilisation and consolidation of EMU.

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