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Lun. 01 oct. 2012 - IATA - le trafic aérien reste "hésitant"

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Auteur: Y B

Date de publication: 01/10/2012

 

L'IATA, l'Association internationale du transport aérien a publié son "AIR TRANSPORT MARKET ANALYSIS" pour le mois d'août 2012.

Elle constate un ralentissement du trafic aérien mondial au mois d'août 2012.

La demande dans le secteur aérien a augmenté de 5,1% en rythme annuel, mais une grande partie de cette progression est imputable au calendrier du Ramadan.

En données corrigées des variations saisonnières, le trafic affiche une évolution stable depuis le mois de juin, fait valoir l'IATA, et ne signe qu'une hausse de 1,2% depuis le début de l'année.

Le fret aérien a reculé en août de 0,8% sur un an.

"Dans l'ensemble, les conditions d'activité sont difficiles", commente Tony Tyler, le président de l'IATA.

Points clés :

  • Global air travel slowed further in August. The number of Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) flown worldwide were no higher in August than they were in June, after adjusting for the seasonal rise in July and August. Year-on-year comparisons have been very volatile in recent months due to the impact of major fluctuations last year. The comparison with August last year showed RPKs 5.1% higher, compared to 3.1% in July; the apparent acceleration is due entirely to a fall in travel between July and August last year. Part of this was due to the timing of Ramadan, which dampened air travel demand for the entire calendar month of August 2011 but impacted just a portion of this month.
     
  • Since early this year the pace of air travel expansion had been showing signs of slowing down. That’s not evident from the 5.8% rise in RPKs in the period January to August, compared to the same period in 2011. But the majority of that growth took place in 2011. Since January global air travel markets have expanded by only 1.2%. The slowdown in air travel is largely a result of falling business confidence and slowing world trade growth.
     
  • On international markets, Asia-Pacific was one of the weakest regions. In August, the market was 2.9% higher than a year ago, reflecting slower economic and trade growth. By contrast European airlines, despite facing recessionary conditions in a number of home markets, expanded the RPKs they carry at a 5.6% year-on-year rate. North American airlines, which have been cutting capacity, saw a 0.5% contraction in demand in August compared to a year ago. The fastest growing region remained the Middle East, where airlines continue to gain market share on many long-haul markets.
     
  • Domestic air travel also shows significant market variation. After a sharp slowdown in the middle of this year, the resurgence of Chinese domestic travel demand continued in August with expansion of 10.8% compared to a year ago;. Conversely, India’s slowing economy has suppressed domestic travel, which contracted 2.0% in August compared to a year ago. Japan’s domestic market was down 2.1% in August year-on-year.
     
  • In air freight markets, the signs of a minor recovery that were evident early in 2012 are fading. Global FTKs contracted 0.8% in August compared to a year ago. Moreover, the trend in freight volumes which had stabilized throughout the year also slipped over the month. In August the level of air freight volumes was down 0.8% compared to July. A decline in consumer confidence in major economies over recent months has weakened demand for air freighted consumer goods. Asia/Pacific airlines continue to struggle most, with international traffic in the region contracting 6.3% in August compared to a year ago and 1.8% month-on-month.
     
  • Airlines have responded to weaker air travel and freight markets by slowing capacity expansion. Seasonally adjusted passenger load factors have declined since early 2012 but are still at relatively high levels, particularly in the US, providing some offset to pressures on profitability from the recent renewed rise in jet fuel prices.
     
  • Further declines in business confidence, now at a 38-month low, as well as the slowdown in world trade suggest that growth in air travel and freight will likely weaken further over the next few months.

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