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Nous sélectionnons chaque jour les news que nous estimons importantes pour pouvoir suivre les points suivants :

• le fonctionnement général des marchés financiers, selon les produits et les régions du monde (et principalement en France, Europe et USA) ;

• la réglementation des activités financières, principalement en France, Europe et USA ;

• les tendances économiques et financières fondamentales qui permettent déjà de « voir » l’avenir économique et financier du monde.

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Mar. 21 sept. 2010 - TENDANCES : Rexecode reste modérément optimiste pour 2011

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Rexecode reste modérément optimiste pour 2001 pour la croissance mondiale avec un léger tassement de 4,4% à 3,7%. Évidemment, l'essentiel est fait dans les pays émergents.

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Présentation :

A la Une - Perspectives 2010-2011 : modération de la croissance mondiale - 15/09/2010

Nous interprétons les signes de ralentissement de la croissance mondiale apparus durant l'été comme la fin du rebond consécutif à la récession et l'entrée de l'économie mondiale dans une période de « convalescence ». Nous maintenons le scénario macroéconomique défendu depuis plusieurs trimestres ( voir la Lettre du 1er septembre ).

La croissance mondiale sera un peu plus faible en 2011 (3,7 %) qu'en 2010 (4,4 %), sans rechuter. Sa composition se transformera aux Etats-Unis et en Europe. Les soutiens de l'activité (mouvements de stocks, politique budgétaire) qui ont joué fin 2009 et début 2010 s'atténueront. Ils seront remplacés par le redressement graduel de l'investissement des entreprises et des ménages puis de la consommation.

Sommaire :

  • Les économistes allemands sont partagés sur l'avenir de leur économie
  • Italie : une reprise timorée tirée par les exportations
  • Déficit de construction de logements aux Etats-Unis
  • Russie : flambée des prix à la consommation
  • Modération de l'inflation en Inde

Mar. 21 sept. 2010 - MARCHÉS : Consignes de la FDIC pour la confidentialité

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La FDIC vient de publier un avis sur la protection de la confidentialité des données enregistrées sur les fax, photocopieurs et imprimantes.

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Mar. 21 sept. 2010 - TENDANCES : retour à la "normale" du trafic aérien premium

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L'IATA constate dans son dernier bulletin sur le trafic premium, un certain retour à la normale dans l'évolution de ce trafic.

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Keypoints :

- Premium and economy passenger number growth remained strong in July, despite rising uncertainties about some economies;

- Compared to a year ago premium travel was up 13.8% and economy travel by 8.8%;

- These y-o-y growth rates are comparing travel against a period last year when passenger numbers where rising strong, so rates will fall;

- Comparing seasonally adjusted premium travel in July with June there was annualized growth of over 10%;

- This is slower than the immediate post-recession rebound in 2009 but is stronger than Q2, even adjusted for the ash plume impacts;

- Premium travel growth still appeared to be growing at around double its trend rate at the start of Q3, a sign that the business travel cycle is still strong;

- Geographical differences remain with Asia generating substantial travel while at the other extreme transatlantic markets remain relatively sluggish;

- Unusually strong within Europe premium travel is likely to be the result of long haul passengers connecting to European destination through European gateway hubs;

- Business confidence and world trade are starting to slow but from high levels and are still at a point consistent with at least trend premium travel growth;

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Lun. 20 sept. 2010 - RAPPORTS - Mondialiser la solidarite / Globalizing solidarity

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Le Comité d'experts ad'hoc rédacteurs de ce rapport a été constitué pour répondre à l'interrogation de la "Taskforce on International Financial Transactions for Development" elle-même constituée à la demande de 12 pays réunis à l'initiative de la France durant le début de l'année 2010.

Le rapport examine les solutions financières "réalistes" pour financer le développement des pays en voie de développement.

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NOTA : il ne faut pas confondre ce rapport avec le rapport éponyme de l'Association Caritas

téléchargementdu rapport Caritas

Résumé officiel

1. This report is a response to the request of the Taskforce on International Financial Transactions for Development to assess the feasibility of innovative financing options to address global developmental and environmental challenges.

2. The aim of the report is to address a forgotten financial crisis: the vast shortfall in finance required to meet international development and environmental commitments. Estimates for this funding gap are in the range of $324-336 bn per year between 2012 and 2017 ( $156 bn for climate change, $168-180 bn for ODA - Official Development Assistance). Compounding the challenge, the global financial crisis and recession, and the resulting fiscal consolidations, have seriously undermined governments' ability to meet their pre-existing commitments. The recent sovereign debt crisis in Europe has only served to underline the severe pressure which is continuing to be placed on the fiscal positions of many countries.

3. This report links the funding crisis directly to what is termed the "global solidarity dilemma". Put simply, the growth of the global economy has not been matched with effective means to levy global economic activity to pay for global public goods. If the global community fails to fund the required mitigative and adaptive measures, we face a shared risk of global economic, financial, social and environmental instability, which would undermine the foundations of globalisation. In the view of the Committee, resolving this dilemma is central to addressing the funding gap in a sustainable way.

4. Given this context, there is a clear need to investigate innovative ways of financing development and environmental goals. Given the scale of the funding gap, these will need to be of significantly larger scale than previously established innovative financing mechanisms. Our focus, therefore, is on mechanisms that can enable the wealth of the global economy to be channelled at a scale that can make a meaningful contribution to the crisis facing the funding of global public goods. This should be in a form that addresses the global solidarity dilemma and causes the least distortion to the real economy. Innovative finance, which we define as mechanisms based on global activities that can help to generate substantial and stable flows of funds, have a growing record of success. Notable examples include the air ticket solidarity levy and the International Finance Facility for Immunisation.

5. The Committee believes that the financial sector is the most appropriate point to levy such an innovative financing mechanism. The architecture of the sector is intertwined with the globalised economy, is a primary beneficiary of the growth of the global economy, and - with the liberalisation of the capital markets - has been pivotal to the development of

the global economy. As such, the financial sector is uniquely placed as a channel to redistribute some of the wealth of globalisation towards the provision of global public goods.

6. This report analyses financing options against a number of criteria: sufficiency (where potential revenues are sufficient to make a meaningful contribution); market impact (where market distortions and avoidance are within acceptable limits); feasibility (where legal and technical challenges can be feasibly addressed); and sustainability and suitability (where the flow of revenues would be relatively stable over time, and the source suited to the role of financing global public goods). All the options considered are technically credible and have already been analysed, in different degrees of details, by respected economists and scholars. The purpose of the analysis is therefore to assess the following options against the set criteria.

■ A financial sector activities tax

■ A Value Added Tax (VAT) on financial services.

■ A broad financial transaction tax

■ A nationally collected single-currency transaction tax

■ A centrally collected multi-currency transaction tax

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Lun. 20 sept. 2010 - Lu 20 sept 2010 : La CFTC sanctionne le groupe VITOL (Houston) pour avoir dissimulé des faits sur le NYMEX

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La CFTC vient de sanctionner une entreprise de Houston pour avoir dissimulé des faits aux NYMEX. Il est en fait reprocher au Groupe VITOL d'être intervenu sur le marché de façon coordonnée au travers de 2 sociétés différentes VIC et VCM.

Communiqué :

Washington, DC - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today announced the filing and simultaneous settlement of charges against Vitol Inc. (VIC) and Vitol Capital Management Ltd. (VCM) of Houston, Texas, for willfully failing to disclose material facts to the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), now NYMEX/CME Group, concerning the relationship between the two companies. Both firms are non-clearing members of the NYMEX.

As a result of VIC's and VCM's willful failure to disclose the material facts, the NYMEX/CME Group did not aggregate the market positions of the two companies for position limit and accountability limit purposes for almost two years, the CFTC order finds.

The order requires VIC and VCM jointly and severally to pay a $6 million civil monetary penalty. The order also requires VIC and VCM to cease and desist from further violations of Section 9(a)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act (Act), 7 U.S.C. § 13(a)(4) (2006). Section 9(a)(4) makes it unlawful for any person "willfully to falsify, conceal, or cover up by any trick, scheme, or artifice a material fact, make any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statements or representations, or make or use any false writing or document knowing the same to contain any false, fictitious or fraudulent statement or entry to a registered entity, board of trade, or futures association designated or registered under this Act in furtherance of its official duties under this Act."

According to the CFTC order, VIC and VCM learned in June 2007 that the NYMEX misperceived the relationship between the two companies. Instead of correcting the NYMEX's misperception, VIC and VCM implemented only limited barriers to prevent the flow of trading information between them. Thereafter, VIC and VCM willfully failed to disclose to the NYMEX the true nature of the firms' relationship.

The order further finds that because VIC and VCM willfully failed to disclose to the NYMEX the true nature of their relationship and the limited barriers implemented to prevent the flow of trading information between the two companies, the NYMEX's misperception continued. As a result, the NYMEX/CME Group did not aggregate the positions of VIC and VCM for the purposes of position limits and accountability levels until March 2009, according to the order.

The CFTC acknowledges the NYMEX's cooperation in this matter.

The CFTC Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this case are Kathleen Banar, John Einstman, Michael Loconte, Erica Bodin, Rick Glaser and Richard Wagner.

Dim. 19 sept. 2010 - RAPPORTS : "Global CDx survey" par Fitch

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Fitch vient de publier sa revue annuelle sur les dérivés de crédit comprenant une évaluation de sa talle, de son évolution et surtout de la perception de son évolution en cours, c'est-à-dire des effets de la réforme. La transparence du marché est largement approuvée.

Téléchargement gratuit après identification sur le site de Fitch

Introduction :

The rapid growth of the credit derivatives (CDx) market prior to 2007, its absolute size as measured by gross notional amounts, and its perceived role in the current global financial crisis have led to intense scrutiny and much debate among market participants, regulators and policy makers about the need for significant change in market practices and on ways to strengthen regulatory oversight. This year's survey was undertaken in the midst of significant and transformational changes taking place within the CDx market and therefore focuses on some of these key issues in addition to traditional themes such as:

- Surprises and challenges for the CDx market from the perspective of market participants.

- The current state of the market, including key growth trends.

- A brief sector review of banks and insurance companies.

This year's survey, which is the seventh conducted by Fitch, includes 29 banks from 10 countries. Note while these participants are a subset of the total number that comprises this market, the institutions covered represent many of the most significant players and underscore past and current trends.

Survey Highlights

1 - Regulation in general was one of the most often cited challenges, with commentary ranging from the prospects of dealing with regulatory perceptions of the market to being overregulated on several fronts.

2 - Ninety-six percent of market participants surveyed agree that central clearing is called for, and most believe it would reduce systemic risk. However, there was less of a consensus among survey respondents as to the desirability of having multiple clearing houses or the exchange trading of CDx.

3 - Some survey respondents were surprised at the extent to which the market meltdown or negative dynamics were attributed by market observers to the use of CDx.

4 - Hedging, basis trades, the traded indices, and sovereign strategies were all noted by market participants as those that grew over the last year. On the downside, CDOs and more leveraged structures were mentioned as laggards.

5 - At year-end 2009, single-name CDS and indices continued to dominate the market; while both products make up more than 90% of the total CDx market, it is notable that on a relative basis the use of indices has fallen for the first time.

6 - The development of the sovereign CDS market in terms of volumes and general relevance was noted by respondents, with 89% expecting sovereign CDS use to grow in the future.

7 - The top 10 counterparties comprised 78% of the total exposure in terms of the number of times cited, up from the 67% reported last year, reflecting the dominant role of banks and dealers as counterparties and the consolidation of counterparties post-crisis.

8 - While the banks surveyed by Fitch saw a decline in both sold and bought positions, they continued to have relatively balanced portfolios in the aggregate. Although some banks shifted from being net protection sellers to net protection buyers, there were no significant movements in the other direction.

10 - Sixty percent of survey respondents acknowledged the growing importance of the risk management function within banks and the role of the chief risk officer, compared with 40% in the previous year.

11 - Given the concentrated nature of the CDx market, the continued importance of counterparty risk management was highlighted by 53% of survey respondents. The most recent findings matched the results seen two years earlier.

Mots-clés : Consensus

Dim. 19 sept. 2010 - MARCHÉS : Point sur le Dodd-Frank Act par Gary Gensler (CFTC)

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Gary Gensler a fait récemment le point sur l'application du Dodd-Frank Act devant l'ISDA Regional Conderence.

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Extrait :

Today I will update you on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's efforts to implement the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act with regard to regulation of the swaps marketplace. Though I know you have occasionally had CFTC chairmen speak before you, this is the first time that one has been invited to discuss regulation of the swaps markets. Though we have regulated derivatives since the 1920s, our jurisdiction was limited to futures.

Now, the CFTC, along with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is tasked with bringing its regulatory expertise to the swaps marketplace. There are three critical reforms of the derivatives markets included in the Dodd-Frank Act. First, the bill requires swap dealers to come under comprehensive regulation. Second, the bill moves the bulk of the swaps marketplace onto transparent trading facilities - either exchanges or swap execution facilities. Third, the bill requires clearing of standardized swaps by regulated clearinghouses to lower risk in the marketplace.

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Dim. 19 sept. 2010 - MARCHÉS : Déclaration de Mary L. Schapiro sur le financement court terme

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A l'occasion d'un examen des nouvelles procédures prévues par la SEC pour l'information des actionnaires sur les entreprises cotées, Mary Schapiro a précisé la position et l'analyse de la SEC sur cette question.

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Voir aussi ce lien sur les mesures proposées

SHORT-TERM BORROWINGS DISCLOSURE Guidance on presentation of liquidity disclosure

Extrait :

The proposed rules we are considering today, if adopted, would shed greater light on a company's short-term borrowings, including a practice some refer to as balance sheet "window-dressing." Under these proposals, investors would have better information about a company's financing activities during the course of a reporting period - not just a period-end snapshot. With this information, investors would be better able to evaluate the company's ongoing liquidity and leverage risks.

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Mots-clés : Actionnaire

Dim. 19 sept. 2010 - MARCHÉS : Rappel au réglement pour les PSI

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L'AMF a publié le vendredi 17, un rappel au règlement pour les PSI (Prestataires de Services d'Investissement) en matière de procédure de sondage de marchés :

"Dans le cadre de la prévention des comportements d'initiés, l'AMF entend rappeler les règles applicables en matière de pratique de sondage de marché.

En application des dispositions du règlement général de l'AMF (article 216-1), il est rappelé que tout sondage de marché effectué par un prestataire de services d'investissement, lors de la préparation d'une opération financière sur le marché primaire ou sur le marché secondaire d'un instrument financier, implique la mise en œuvre d'une procédure spécifique destinée à prévenir la commission d'abus de marché.

Cette procédure, détaillée par les dispositions de l'article 216-1 du règlement général de l'AMF, prévoit notamment l'obligation, pour le prestataire chargé de tester l'intérêt du marché, d'informer ses interlocuteurs de la nature privilégiée de l'information échangée et ce, en matière de titres de capital comme en matière de titres de créances.

S'agissant des opérateurs de marché contactés dans le cadre d'une telle opération de sondage, la détention d'une information qualifiable de privilégiée, emporte à leur égard l'obligation d'abstention absolue de négocier le titre financier concerné ou tout instrument financier qui lui serait lié, et ce jusqu'à ce que l'information en cause soit rendue publique ou soit obsolète."

Mots-clés : Obligation

Sam. 18 sept. 2010 - RAPPORTS : Les Nanotech dans la communication des entreprises

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Novethic publie un gros rapport sur les Nanotechnologies dans la communication des grandes entreprises; et surtout sur l'absence de ces nanotech dans leur "com".

On peut regretter l'absence de grands organismes publics comme la SNCF, L'Éducation Nationale ou les Armées ? et pourquoi pas l'APHP ou les Hospices de Lyon, ou les grandes régions ?

Cette première étude témoigne en fait d'un phénomène courant de retard à la prise en compte de l'innovation qui paraît toujours mineure dans une grande structure. La raison est toujours la même : ça ne se voit pas dans es statistiques ! C'est d'ailleurs ce que faisait remarquer un grand économiste américain à propos de l'informatique dans les années 70.

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Mots-clés : Micro-électronique

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